Forecast for the Development of Computer Hardware and Software for 2001
The most significant event is the appearance of two 64-bit processors (Intel and AMD) with different structures.
In 2001, 64-bit processors still did not affect the market for processors and operating systems. 32-bit architecture will remain predominant.
In the 32-bit processor market, the market share of Intel and AMD processors will change significantly. AMD “Duron” processors will become dominant in mass PCs (SOHO market). The share of AMD processors in high-performance workstations will also increase significantly.
The processor clock speed will increase significantly. There is every reason to believe that by the end of 2001 the processor clock speed will exceed 2 GHz.
By the end of 2001, the appearance of multiprocessor structures made on a common substrate is possible.
By the end of 2001, DDR SDRAM will be the main standard.
RDRAM and some other types of memory will be very limited.
The leading manufacturer of chipsets in 2001 will be VIA. The new VIA chipsets, specially designed for working with DDR SDRAM, will get rid of their traditional drawback – slow memory handling.
Chipsets for multiprocessor structures will receive significant development.
Integrated chipsets will continue to have limited distribution.
The main direction of tire development in 2001 will be an increase in their performance when working with peripheral devices.
The AGP bus will remain virtually unchanged.
The processor bus speed will increase to 400 MHz (100 MHz x 4 for Intel and 200 MHz x 2 for AMD).
By the end of 2001, memory buses with a frequency of 133 MHz and below will be found only in the cheapest models.
The main external interface in 2001 will be USB.
The USB interface will gradually supersede the now widespread COM and LPT interfaces. The USB interface will also have a keyboard and mouse.
The share of devices with the IEE 1394 (FireWire) interface will increase.
The primary standard for IDE devices will be ATA 5 (UDMA 100).
For SCSI devices, UWSCSI 80 will prevail. In RAID systems, the UWSCSI 160 standard will be widely used.
Connectors for ISA devices will be found only in the cheapest models.
The relative share of multiprocessor boards will increase.
The main form factor will remain the ATX standard.
Currently, there is a steady growth trend in the capacity of hard drives, as well as a decrease in the unit cost of storing a unit of information. Since March 1999, hard drives have fallen in price by about half, and their capacity has doubled. According to IDC, by 2003 the demand for HDDs with a capacity of 30 to 50 GB will increase by about 38 times.
The recording density is constantly increasing and at the moment is more than 20 GB / inch2. In 2001, the appearance of a 120 GB HDD is expected, and by 2005 an increase in the capacity of one plate to 200 GB is expected. The price of storing one megabyte of information from $ 0.6 in 1995 dropped to $ 0.1 and continues to decline.
Most HDDs will have a spindle speed of 7200 rpm. At the same time, in powerful PCs, graphic stations, the rotation speed can reach 10,000 and even 15,000 rpm.
Continued use will be made of proven HDD protection technology from shock and shock, such as SPS II from Quantum or ShockBlock from Maxtor. Noise protection systems are not so popular now, but in 2001 they will be applied more widely.