Intel forecasts (optimistic)
To solve the problem of reducing the size of transistors and conductive tracks, Intel created a whole working group called Technology & Manufacturing Group (TMG), which has about 4,000 employees.
This unit improves the manufacturing process, making it more and more “thin”, and also conducts enormous research on materials that can be used as conductors and conductive elements. In particular, the engineers working in this group proved that it would be advisable to use copper compounds together with the transition to the 0.13-micron process technology. But the main efforts of this group are nevertheless aimed at reducing the rate of the technological process.
To explain to the mass user how small the transistor planned for release in 2005 will be, experts from TMG said: “The transistor will be identical in size to the virus.” Of course, this statement somewhat embellishes the actual state of affairs. And in 2005, transistors will be about an order of magnitude “larger” than viruses. But they are right in one thing – these are already comparable sizes.
In general, according to forecasts of Intel Corporation, by 2005:
Transistors will have a size of 0.03 microns, which for comparison is the width of 3 atomic layers. 12 million transistors can be placed one centimeter in length, and the size of one transistor will be 100,000 times smaller than the thickness of a piece of tissue paper.
Transistors will operate at a frequency of 10 GHz.
These transistors will create the core of the next generations of Intel CPUs, which is about 10 times more integrated than the most advanced Pentium 4 processors to date. For information: future microprocessors will have 400 million or more transistors operating at a clock frequency of 10 GHz , and the core voltage is less than 1 V. Today’s Pentium 4 consists of 42 million transistors operating at a frequency of 1.3 … 1.5 GHz, the supply voltage is 1.7 V.
By consuming 1 V or less, next-generation CPUs will consume significantly less power than today’s processors. Thus, they can easily draw energy from batteries and accumulators and can be used in laptops and PDAs.